A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
